Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $97,481, but a drop to $77,000 would not signal the end of its bull market in 2025, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. In a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter) on Feb. 19, Ju emphasized that a 30% correction would align with historical trends while keeping the broader uptrend intact.
#Bitcoin Cost Basis at $95K:
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025
• ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89K
• Binance Traders: $59K
• Mining Companies: $57K – Falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) confirmed a bear market.
• Old Whales: $25K – Never breached historically. pic.twitter.com/QlfUx8bO08
No Bitcoin Bear Market in 2025
Despite recent sideways price action and Bitcoin’s struggle to break past $100,000, Ju remains optimistic about the asset’s long-term trajectory.
“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year,” he stated, highlighting the cost basis of different Bitcoin investor cohorts. He identified $77,000 as a key level that, even if tested, would still position BTC above its previous cycle’s all-time highs, ensuring the continuation of the bull market.
Ju pointed out that Bitcoin’s cost basis for U.S. spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors stands at $89,000. This level has acted as support since November, reinforcing its importance as a potential rebound zone. Additionally, recent whale accumulation aligns with this price, further strengthening its significance.
However, deeper corrections could pose risks. Data from Binance shows that traders on the platform have an aggregate breakeven point around $59,000, while Bitcoin mining companies would see losses if BTC drops below $57,000. Ju noted that past dips below mining breakeven points—such as in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018—have historically confirmed bear markets.
Post-Halving Gains Yet to Fully Materialize
Supporting Ju’s perspective, CryptoQuant analyst Timo Oinonen argues that Bitcoin’s current cycle remains “unfinished.” Since April’s block subsidy halving, BTC has only gained around 60%, a figure lower than previous post-halving performances. Oinonen predicts potential volatility, including a “sell in May” effect and a period of sideways action during summer. However, he anticipates strong gains by Q4, citing historical seasonality from past cycles in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024.
Also Read: Is Jack Dorsey Satoshi Nakamoto? Unveiling the Cryptic Clues Behind Bitcoin’s Mysterious Creator
While short-term fluctuations are expected, experts agree that Bitcoin’s broader bull market remains intact, setting the stage for higher prices in the months ahead.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of CoinBrief.io. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Coin Brief is not responsible for any financial losses.
