Ethereum (ETH) has staged a notable comeback, reclaiming the $2,500 level after a sharp correction fueled by global geopolitical tensions. The bounce has ignited cautious optimism within the crypto market, with Ethereum outpacing Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of percentage recovery from recent lows.
Despite the uncertainty that spooked traders just days earlier, the current technical and risk-reward metrics suggest Ethereum may be entering a more stable phase—possibly primed for a stronger rally if broader conditions allow.
Improving Risk-Reward Profile
Investor interest in ETH appears to be rebounding as key risk metrics paint a more favorable picture. According to the Sharpe Ratio—an indicator of risk-adjusted returns—Ethereum’s performance has improved notably after months of decline. This suggests that ETH is now delivering better returns relative to its volatility, signaling increased confidence in its price structure.
Simultaneously, the Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) for ETH hovered at 0.41. Historically, this level reflects a moderate risk environment—comfortably away from fear-driven capitulation or speculative euphoria. Supporting this, the multi-color band on the NRM chart shows ETH floating in the 0.5 region, a historically stable zone known for accumulation rather than panic or hype cycles.
Ethereum's risk isn't high — the metrics just point to a boring moment for Vitalik's cryptocurrency. The risk vs. reward is actually looking more attractive than BTC.
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) June 13, 2025
Charts: @Alphractal pic.twitter.com/p5NIW3HOvh
In this context, Ethereum appears to be in a “silent phase”—a period where smart money quietly builds positions while market sentiment remains subdued. The trend of lower volatility and improved risk-adjusted returns has made ETH more appealing for long-term holders, even more so than BTC in the current climate.
Volatility Shake-Out: What Comes Next?
Yet, the calm is not without its tremors. Ethereum recently experienced a sharp correction from $2,800 to below $2,500, accompanied by a steep 19% drop in Open Interest on Binance. The move, interpreted as a long squeeze, forced leveraged positions out of the market and likely contributed to the decline.
Historically, such leverage flush-outs tend to precede recovery phases, especially when long-term investor metrics remain intact. With risk-to-reward indicators still tilting positive, Ethereum could see further upside if it regains its lost support zones with strong volume.
Q3 Outlook: ETH to Outperform BTC?
Looking ahead, Ethereum’s ability to reclaim key resistance levels and maintain stability may determine whether it can outperform Bitcoin in Q3. Analysts caution, however, that a full reversal hinges on broader macroeconomic stability and the resumption of institutional capital inflows.
Also Read: Ethereum Price at Risk as MVRV Flashes Sell Signal: Will ETH Drop Below $2,410?
Still, with ETH’s risk metrics improving and its price rebounding faster than BTC, the foundations for a potential breakout appear to be quietly forming—away from the noise, but not away from the opportunity.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of CoinBrief.io. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Coin Brief is not responsible for any financial losses.
