Russia is weighing its options carefully after the U.S. launched devastating airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. With Tehran calling for urgent support from Moscow, all eyes are on President Vladimir Putin — but his silence speaks volumes.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Moscow on Monday, seeking “serious consultations” following what former U.S. President Donald Trump called an “obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The attack has left Iran diplomatically isolated and looking for help.
Moscow Unlikely to Offer Military Aid
Despite Tehran’s past support for Moscow — notably providing drones during Russia’s war in Ukraine — experts say the Kremlin is unlikely to return the favor militarily.
“Putin needs his weapons for Ukraine. All he can offer Iran now are words,” noted Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. Russia faces limitations not just in capacity, but also in willingness, as it carefully navigates relations with a Trump-friendly Washington.
Russia’s Strategic Calculations in the Middle East
Russia must balance multiple strategic interests. On one hand, instability in the Middle East could increase global oil prices, benefiting Russia’s war-chest. On the other hand, the potential collapse of Iranian infrastructure and partnerships could be a financial blow.
Russia has invested heavily in Iran in recent years — with plans to invest $8 billion in oil and gas projects. These ventures now face an uncertain future. If Iran is destabilized further, Moscow risks losing both influence and returns.
Avoiding U.S. Fallout While Watching Ukraine
Any direct Russian support for Iran risks provoking Trump, whose new administration has taken a hardline approach. Putin likely wants to avoid new sanctions or increased pressure on Russia at a time when he is still entrenched in Ukraine.
Analysts suggest the Iran conflict may distract Western powers from Ukraine — a potential short-term win for Moscow. But the long-term loss of another regional ally could weaken Russia’s global position further.
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Russia is choosing caution over confrontation. While the temptation to support Iran diplomatically exists, Moscow appears more focused on protecting its own geopolitical interests — and avoiding antagonizing Trump. The future of Russia’s investments in Iran now hangs in the balance.
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