- TON has flipped the $1.70 level into short-term support, opening swing trade opportunities.
- On-chain data suggests rising profit-taking risk despite increased trading activity.
- The long-term trend remains bearish unless TON reclaims much higher resistance levels.
Toncoin (TON) is once again under the spotlight as it struggles to establish clear bullish momentum despite Bitcoin’s renewed strength above $94,000. While several altcoins benefited from Bitcoin’s early January rally, Toncoin has lagged behind, posting modest weekly losses and remaining capped near a critical resistance level.
The $1.70 zone has emerged as a decisive battlefield for TON traders. Price action over the past month shows repeated rejection near this level, highlighting growing uncertainty among market participants. Although short-term signals suggest opportunity, broader indicators point to caution.
$1.70: A Technical Pivot for Toncoin
Technical analysis continues to underscore the importance of $1.70. This level previously acted as a supply zone but has recently been flipped into short-term support on the daily chart. That shift offers swing traders a potential entry, provided buying pressure holds.
Daily volume trends and on-balance volume (OBV) suggest renewed interest since late December, indicating that buyers are active—at least in the short term. As long as TON holds above this reclaimed support, upside targets near $2.16 and $2.37 remain technically viable.
However, failure to defend the $1.56 region would invalidate the bullish setup and likely invite renewed selling pressure.
On-Chain Signals Point to Profit-Taking Risk
While price structure offers near-term optimism, on-chain metrics paint a more restrained picture. The 90-day MVRV ratio has climbed sharply, signaling that many holders are now sitting on unrealized profits. Historically, such conditions increase the likelihood of profit-taking, which could cap further gains.
Open Interest has also surged, reflecting rising speculative positioning. Yet the mean coin age has remained largely flat, suggesting limited long-term accumulation. This divergence implies traders are active, but conviction among longer-term holders is still lacking.
Higher Timeframe Trend Remains Bearish
Zooming out, the weekly chart reinforces the need for caution. Toncoin remains firmly within a bearish structure, with directional indicators showing sellers in control. For a meaningful long-term trend reversal, TON would need to reclaim the $3.75 level—more than double its current price.
Also Read: Toncoin at a Make-or-Break Level as XRP Quietly Gathers Strength
That said, the absence of new lows on the weekly OBV over the past two months offers a small glimmer of encouragement. Major supply zones remain clustered around $2.30–$2.40 and near $2.80, levels where selling pressure could intensify.
Toncoin’s reclaimed $1.70 support gives short-term traders a tactical opportunity, but the broader picture remains mixed. Rising profit-taking risk, weak long-term accumulation, and a bearish higher-timeframe trend all argue for disciplined trade management. For now, TON appears better suited for cautious swing trades rather than aggressive long-term bets.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of CoinBrief.io. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. CoinBrief.io is not responsible for any financial losses.
