Despite ongoing speculations, the prolonged Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit remains unresolved, keeping the XRP community on edge. While some anticipate an early settlement, legal experts suggest otherwise. The debate has intensified as analysts outline five possible resolutions for the case, each with varying degrees of likelihood and implications for Ripple.
Five Possible Outcomes of the XRP Lawsuit
Although the SEC has recently dismissed several crypto lawsuits, the Ripple case continues to face legal hurdles. According to All Things XRP, a prominent advocacy platform, the lawsuit could conclude in one of five ways:
- SEC Drops Its Appeal (35% Probability): Legal analysts believe that under new leadership, the SEC could withdraw its appeal, leading to a partial resolution. However, Ripple would still face a $125 million fine and an injunction on institutional XRP sales, as ruled by Judge Analisa Torres. While this outcome could provide clarity, it would not completely absolve Ripple of regulatory challenges.
- Reduced Penalty (30% Probability): A negotiated settlement could lower Ripple’s fine from $125 million to $75 million. However, the injunction would likely remain unless further court intervention occurs. Analysts suggest that a policy shift, potentially under a new SEC Chair like Paul Atkins, could make this a viable resolution.
- Court Decision Reversal (20% Probability): If the Second Circuit sides with the SEC’s appeal, programmatic XRP sales could be classified as securities under the Howey Test. This scenario could result in Ripple facing a fine exceeding $500 million and an expanded injunction. Legal experts, including Jeremy Hogan and MetaLawMan, warn that this could be a major setback for Ripple.
- Fine Upheld, Injunction Lifted (25% Probability): Ripple’s cross-appeal could lead to the court upholding the fine while removing restrictions on institutional sales. If Ripple successfully demonstrates compliance with securities laws, this resolution could open new avenues for XRP’s adoption.
- SEC Drops the Case (15% Probability): While unlikely, a broader deregulatory shift could prompt the SEC to abandon the lawsuit altogether, nullifying the fine and dissolving the injunction. However, court approval would still be required, making this scenario the least probable.
5. Full SEC Capitulation.
— All Things XRP (@XRP_investing) March 11, 2025
The SEC could drop the case, nullifying the $125M fine and seeking court dissolution of the injunction.
This might occur under a deregulatory shift, though court approval remains necessary.
👉 Likelihood: 15% – Unlikely given procedural momentum and…
What’s Next for Ripple?
Legal expert Jeremy Hogan has suggested that a resolution could arrive by March, but the injunction issue may persist. With Ripple’s future tied to regulatory developments, the XRP community awaits clarity on how the lawsuit will shape the broader crypto landscape.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of CoinBrief.io. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Coin Brief is not responsible for any financial losses.
Also Read: XRP Price Struggles in March, But Analyst Predicts Major Rally by 2025
